Bet Check: App. St. vs. Miami

Still down on the Miami Hurricanes - and the Palmetto Expressway - after watching the Hurricanes get drilled by Alabama (whoopy) and you getting stuck in traffic on 836? 

No worries. Just buy low and bet the Hurricanes (-9), still made up of a very talented roster, including several future Sunday players, despite getting outclassed by the No.1 team in the nation, on getting you back to the cash window with a ATS victory over Appalachian St. (1-0) on Saturday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The Hurricanes (0-1) appeared to check out after falling behind by 24 points in the first half in Atlanta, but played much better in the second half, especially on defense, despite not covering +19.5. The Mountaineers, while talented at several positions on the field, were exposed defensively by giving up plenty of chunk plays vs. East Carolina last week  And Miami has the offensive personnel to really make App. St. pay for those shortcomings.

Catching UM as a single digit home favorite, if you still can, is a bargain if you're looking to bet the Coastal Division contenders to score a SU and ATS win in their 2021 home opener.

'Bet Check', while likely would punt on this one, recommends the undervalued Miami, a perfect example of general public overreaction after playing Alabama, as a small lean play for betting purposes.

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The Miami Hurricanes (0-1) host Appalachian State (1-0) on Saturday, September 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Miami is a (-9) home favorite at most U.S. sportsbooks.

Bet Check: Week 1 Dolphins vs. Patriots

 The Dolphins (-2.5) jump right into the AFC East pool to open their 2021 NFL betting schedule with a Week 1, late-Sunday road test vs. the Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts in what should be a tightly-contested game between divisional rivals. 

Is a projected leap forward from second-year starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, combined with an above-average defense, enough for you to bet on the road underdog? Or do the prospects of Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones tearing through the Dolphins secondary have you ready to go with the home favorite? Let's take a 'Bet Check':

Miami opened at (+2) in May - at a variety of sportsbooks - before the Patriots took some money to being the spread up a tick.

This one is tricky, at least to the naked eye, because the Patriots recently shipped away Cam Newton - shortly after discarding of a featured RB. But NFL bettors shouldn't take the bait. Jones will be operating behind a solid OL and plenty of talented options on offense. And paired with a Top-5 defense, the Patriots will be a smart betting option all season long. 

The Dolphins, on the flip side, are still breaking in plenty of new pieces on offense and will arrive in New England with a reconfigured offensive line - for now. Not exactly, a winning proposition considering they are going up against a very good defense line. 

'Bet Check' recommends taking a look and leaning, slightly, on the total of 44 - if you can find it at your sportsbook of choice. Opened at 43.5 in most shops, the total went up as high as 45.5 before apparently settling at 44. And if you think the Patriots will ease their quarterback's way through the playbook, at least early in the season, and the Dolphins will manage to control New England's running game, the under play makes sense.

(Are you interested in contacting me or seeing more of my work for business purposes? DM me at miami_by_fernie on Instagram or Facebook.)

Warming up: QB Tua Tagovailoa prepares at Dolphins practice for a Week 1 showdown vs. the New England Patriots. 

#nfl #week1 #bet #sportsbetting #betting #sportsbook #overunder #totalpoints #money #spread #bettingwindow #cash #bets #miami #afceast 

Bet Check: 2021 Miami Dolphins

 Would you make a long-term bet right now on an NFL team with high expectations built around a skilled, yet raw second-year starting QB, trendy defensive unit and respectable coaching staff - all tasked with keeping their heads above water in the AFC East?

If so, you're betting on the 2021 Miami Dolphins to win over (9/9.5) games at approximately (-135) - depending on the sportsbook of choice - and take you to the betting window to collect your cash. But let's dive in deeper and skim the Dolphins from a betting perspective, before you start drawing up your new mansion on Star Island.

Miami, opening at New England on Sunday afternoon, has been pretty good over the course of the last two seasons for bettors who cherish underdogs, going 16-9 ATS, including 8-4 on the road. And with additional road trips to Buffalo, Las Vegas and Tampa Bay in the first five weeks of the season, you are likely to find plenty of value with the Dolphins as a significant road 'dog. 

Even a 'road trip' to London to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence, who might be showing his true colors by then, could potentially offer over backers a chance to bet on the Dolphins as a 'dog.

Miami, 7-9 over/under in 2020, is trusting another year under the same offense will launch Tua Tagovailoa into the upper-tier of NFL QBs while a star-studded defense, especially in the secondary, and improved special teams unit is enough to keep them at or around +9/+9.5 wins in the very competitive AFC East.

Let's bet the Dolphins develop a sneaky good passing attack by season's end and along with a Top-5 defense and serviceable running game land at 10-7 or 11-6. (Play: Over +9/+9.5 wins)

#2021miamidolphins #overunder #bet #betting #cash #sportsbook #underdog #bets #ats #bettingvalue #money #afceast

         

Week 1: NFL Picks

 Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is here, and with the rapid growth of the sports betting industry it must feel like Christmas for bettors everywhere - especially in states where sports betting is already legal.

In fact, a recent survey suggest an increase of 36 % in American adults looking to bet on sports. And with plenty more spirals, fumbles and touchdowns coming our way, soon, that percentage is likely to go up.

 So, let's not waste anymore time and hopefully get you to the cash window with our best NFL bets for Week 1:

49ers vs. Lions (+7.5): San Francisco at plus a touchdown on the road appears to be very appealing to the general public. The 49ers, who took a step backwards in 2020 because of countless injuries, for the most part, return a slew of options on offense, while holding steady on defense. But I'm not buying a west coast team lacking depth along their offensive line can cover the tricky number to open their season vs. a former division foe (Jared Goff), respectable running game and improved roster. Grab the points and roar on your way to the money cage.

              

Jets QB Zach Wilson will make his regular season debut vs. the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Jets vs. Panthers (under 45): So, the Jets, who have suffered several crushing blows to their defense without playing a regular season down, come in a bit undervalued. For one, the Green Planes now have a defensive -minded head coach (Robert Saleh) who has preached a more aggressive approach all summer. Add a rookie QB (Zach Wilson) making his first career regular season start to a kind-of-vanilla style offense courtesy of Carolina QB Sam Darnold, who will likely be reigned in by a conservative Matt Rhule who has RB Christian McCaffrey in his back pocket to boot - and putting more than six touchdowns on the board might be too much of an ask from these two offenses. Bet its a sloppy and slow-moving game all the way to the betting window.

#nfl #betting #bet #picks #sportsbook #bestpicks #bets #sportsbetting

(If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem please call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

Week 2: NCAAF Picks

 Week 2 of the 2021 college football season is upon us. That means it's time to stop whining about Clemson's offensive line, the starting quarterback for the North Carolina Tar Heels and Jenny Taft's inability to jump around. 

And jump right into our best bets for this weekend - with one thing in mind: cashing a winning ticket at the betting window.

Toledo +17 vs. Notre Dame: Are the Fighting Irish a legit Top-10 outfit or just a name brand living on borrowed time after barely getting out of Tallahassee with a win against a middle-tier FSU team? Take the points with a motivated Rockets squad against a Notre Dame team playing a midday game just five days after opening the season in primetime.

           

 No. 3 Ohio State (-15) host No. 12 Oregon in one of several marquee Week 2 matchups.

Oregon +15 @ Ohio St. : Don't be fooled by the loud uniforms or tight win vs. Fresno State in Week 1. Oregonl proved to be very physical on both sides of the ball and now takes on a talented, but young, team in a high-profile spot with the weight of the Pac-12 on it's shoulders on the road. Look for Oregon to expose a soft secondary and stay within the number. If not win straight up. 

Texas (-210) @ Arkansas: Dark horse in the Big 12 - thanks to a young star at QB, an explosive RB and competent coaching staff. Get ahead of the market and bet the Longhorns as a bargain for as long as you can. It won't last long. Bet Texas - here with something to prove on the road against an SEC opponent - in this spot at a relatively cheap price.  

(NCAAF $eason: 3-2 overall)

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