Friday, August 18, 2023

Points well taken: What is a NFL point spread bet and how you can make one this season

The start of the NFL regular season is almost here !!

And with a host of sportsbooks apps now available at your fingertips, including at Fan Duel, you can also make (live) in-game bets, when betting on NFL game(s). 

But in this blog post, we're going to summarize how to bet the point spread, when betting on any pro football game.
BETTING THE POINT SPREAD

Betting the point spread, not only one of the easiest bets to understand when betting on pro football, but very popular among all bettors, is also known as betting 'against the spread' (ATS). 

A way of encouraging equal betting on both teams, a point spread (bet) provides sportsbooks a way of balancing their action -- after oddsmakers set point spreads for all NFL games.

(Note: Plenty of NFL lines come with an additional half-point, otherwise known as a 'hook'. The 'hook' is intended to avoid any chance of a push (or tie); example like given scores of 7-6 (+1.5), 27-24 (+3.5), 20-14 (+6.5), 31-24 (+7.5), etc.)

In a point spread bet, the final score matters - whether a bettor has the favorite (-) or the underdog (+). For example, let's say the Houston Texans are favored by 5 points against the Miami Dolphins

In order for any bettor to win a point spread bet, the 'favored' team (look for a minus next to a team's name) not only has to win the game, but do so by the given point spread for you to cash a bet on the favorite laying points.

On the flip side, if you bet the underdog, which is the team receiving points, they don't have to win the game straight up for you to win your bet - given they don't lose the game by more than the amount of points you took when making the 'spread' bet.

Using Dolphins @ Texans (-5) as an example for this exercise, the team with the negative sign (-5) is the favorite; in this case, it's Houston. If you bet on the Texans against the spread, they have to win the game by at least six points for you to win your bet. So, if the final score is 20-14, or any other score that denotes the Texans winning by at least six points, you cash your bet.

If you bet on the Dolphins, the road underdog with a plus sign (+5), you win your bet if Miami loses by four or fewer points (20-16, 17-13, etc). You also cash your bet, if the Dolphins win the game straight up. 

(Note: It's always a good idea for NFL bettors to monitor the point spreads throughout the week of the games as sportsbooks, who obviously prefer the money be evenly split, are likely to adjust the lines depending on what team is being bet on the most.)

           
Betting the NFL point spread: In order for bettors to cash an NFL point spread bet, the team bet on - whether it's the favorite or underdog - has to win the game by a given margin (*see above).
 


NFL Moneyline Action: What is a NFL moneyline bet; how you can make one this season

With the NFL regular season almost here, bettors everywhere are prepping for a bonanza of football action over the next five months. 

And with a host of sportsbook apps available, including at Fan Duel and Draft Kings, a number of different bets are available when betting on the NFL. But a moneyline bet is still a popular option  when looking for pro football action. Here is a short explanation of a 'moneyline bet', and how to make one when betting pro football. 


HOW TO MAKE A NFL MONEYLINE BET

Moneyline bets, common place in baseball, soccer, and other sports where the final score(s) tend to be on the lower side, can also be made on NFL games.

Unlike with a point spread bet, you're betting on what team will the win the game when making a moneyline bet on any particular NFL team. (*The final score doesn't matter - as long as the team you bet on wins the game.)

Moneyline favorites (-170) are denoted with a negative sign; underdogs are denoted with a plus sign (+;). Let's say the underdog Dolphins (+130) are playing the favorite Texans (-170). If you think Miami is going to win, you bet $100 to win $130. If you like Houston to cash your moneyline bet, you must bet $170 to win $100.

(Reminder: 10-20 % fee, known as the 'juice' in sports betting circles, will be baked into your moneyline bet. So, a $100 bet will cost you from $110-$120.)
    

                    
Moneyline: In order to win your moneyline bet, the team you bet has to win the game.
                 

Hold the offense: Bet Colts-Bears to go under the 40.5 point total

The total for this game kept rising earlier in the week after Colts QB Anthony Richardson was named the No. 1 starter.

 Meanwhile, Bears QB Justin Fields isn't expected to play.

 Regardless, l like the under 40.5 point total. Here's why. 


Colts @ Bears: Under 40.5 (-110)

While I think the Bears and Colts are set to play plenty of key starters on offense, both teams have plenty to iron out when it comes to moving the football effectively.

On one hand, Richardson, named the Colts No. 1 QB earlier this week, threw a pick on his first NFL drive last week, and looked quite uncomfortable doing it. 

As a result, he's likely to see the field a lot, and that's a good thing for under bettors because I'm not sure the Florida alum is better right now than backup QBs Gardner Minshew or Sam Ehlinger. 

At first glance, Fields' stats last week (129 passing yards and two touchdown passes on just three completions) jump off the page. But most of those yards were gained after successful screen passes. In addition, the Bears, working out a new offensive scheme, have determined Fields will not play against Indy. So, be very careful.

Finally, as a contrarian, I like the fact that the total in this game keeps going up. I also tend to take a hard look at the under total in NFL preseason games. Especially in this spot, and given the uncertainty, still, surrounding both of the offensive units.



Cut it out: Bet Washington (+3.5) to beat Baltimore, end streak

Commanders (+3.5) over Ravens 

The Ravens, on a 24-game preseason win streak, rested most of their key starters in last week's win over the Eagles. So, it's safe to bet on Lamar Jackson and Co. playing very little here.

Despite a Week 1 preseason win against the the BrownsWashington struggled to find any offensive rhythm with Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett behind center. For that reason, I look for Howell and Brissett to get significant playing time as the Commanders not only look to settle in on a starting quarterback, but dig deep into what is an uneven roster. 

One of the few preseason questions left for the Ravens to answer is who will be their backup QB: Tyler Huntley or Josh Johnson?  Oddly, Huntley, nursing a hamstring injury despite reportedly being in the lead to win the job, might not play much in this spot, leaving the 37-year-old Johnson plenty of snaps vs. Washington.

Watching Johnson at quarterback, even against Washington's second and third-team teamers on defense, should give all bettors pause, even with a meaningless winning steak at play. 

Without giving away all of my NFL betting strategy, I'm also intrigued by a road underdog getting more than a field goal against a team riding a meaningless winning streak.

Remember: Washington, losers of four straight exhibition games vs. Baltimore, doesn't have to win the game straight up, as losing by a FG or less would be just fine.




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