Thursday, October 28, 2021

Bet ✓: NCAAF Pick$

 Raise your Cuban mojito if you thought Manny Diaz would still be the head coach of the Miami Hurricanes, just a few days before Halloween? You liar! 

You're either, already high on Skittles, after stealing your 8-year-old's backpack, or spilling your Cuban mojito all over the bar at your favorite Coral Gables hideout as the barkeeper you've been after for six months gives you dirty looks. 

But keep trying because if the Hurricanes (3-4 SU, 2-4 ATS), who appear to be rising (*competitive) from the dead after a slow start to the season, are still live for a 🎳 game heading into Pittsburgh as +9 road underdogs on Saturday, anything is definitely possible. So, clean up your mess and take a look at the Bet ✓ board. (Note: I stand at 37-27-1 overall, including 19-15-1 in college football.)

Georgia vs. Florida (+14.5)/U51: Somehow, the Gators, coming off an awful SU loss to LSU, rack up a solid number when it comes to yards per play on offense. And better than any team Georgia has played so far. Florida is also healthy. Georgia is not. Take the points - and the under total - in a big rivalry game about to take over Jacksonville, Florida.

Ole Miss @ Auburn, U66: Pretty even matchup here - especially when you equate the home-field advantage. Auburn, coming off a bye week, is catching Ole Miss on their fifth straight conference game. And the Rebels, still aching at several key positions, including starting QB, didn't exactly light up an LSU team on the verge of giving up last week.

Just enough: Can the Gators cover +14.5 as significant underdogs vs. No. 1 Georgia?

Penn State (+18.5) @ Ohio State: Penn State is relatively healthy, including QB Sean Clifford, despite suffering a crippling defeat last week. This number seems a bit high -- no matter how much the Buckeyes have improved in recent weeks. Besides .. this is Penn State's last chance to get back into the Big 10 race.

Michigan @ Michigan State, U50.5: Michigan, back in the national title landscape, had played a better schedule and should cover the (-4) number going away. But look for the Wolverines to get there very slowly .. in a hard-hitting and low-scoring contest.

Miami (+10) @ Pittsburgh: Really? So, the Panthers handle Clemson and get double-digit love ?? Really?! I'll bet the Hurricanes, playing their second road game in three weeks, stay very close to the number as they continue to try to save Manny Diaz from himself - while in front of microphone. 

Eat Skittles and Crunch bars, too. 



Bet ✓: NFL Pick$

 Here's a FREE NFL betting tip before the start of the Week 8 bet board goes off with Packers @ Cardinals on Thursday Night Football: 

 Underdogs are 58-49 ATS so far this season, including 30-12 as a 'dog of at least + 7. Yes. That means teams packing up for a road game this season are winning at an alarming rate - putting a sheet of ice over the so called home-field advantage. Even our Miami Dolphins have a straight up win as a road underdog in 2021.

But whether or not, I just convinced you to bet the Packers (+6) tonight is another story because I honestly think you should read on since I want you to feel my passion and respect for this kind of stuff. I also think you will enjoy my creative writing and betting perspective. And even if you don't, I thank you for your time and support around here. Here's a Bet ✓ of the NFL Week 8 board. (Note: I was right on four of six picks last week to improve to 37-27-1 overall on the season, including 18-12 on NFL picks.)

1.) Packers (+6) @ Cardinals: Quite a step up for the all-of-a-sudden popular Cardinals (7-0 SU), getting top bill at home on TNF. But the Packers (6-1 SU) have been nearly perfect since losing to New Orleans in Week 1. And if you're going to start doing the math on what not having Davante Adams available means to the Packers' 💰 chances, add JJ Watts not playing for the Cardinals. Arizona has the feel of a paper champion. In Aaron Rodgers I trust.

2.) Steelers (+4) @ Browns: You can't write a 💰 check big enough to convince me the Steelers, who appear to be turning the corner after winning 11 SU last season, are not better than the injury-plagued Browns right now. The Steelers appear to have their OL issues kind of fixed, and Ben Roethlisberger is 23-2-1 all-time vs. the Browns. Send that blank 💰 check.

Old rivals: The Steelers (+4) are road underdogs vs. the Browns in a AFC North clash on Sunday afternoon.

3.) Titans @ Colts (+1.5): Be careful if you're going to come upon a bet here because the Titans are coming off straight up wins over the Bills and Chiefs -- both very flawed teams. The Colts have won 22 of 26 vs. Tennessee - per ESPN Stats & Information - and lost to their division rivals just a month ago so another setback would all but eliminate their AFC South hopes for 2021. Tennessee hasn't been great away from home in recent memory, while Indianapolis features a run defense plenty good enough to control Derrick Henry. Bet the 🏇.. 

4.) Panthers (+2.5) @ Falcons: Don't discount the importance here as far as the NFC playoff picture is concerned as both sides are currently in the wild-card mix. Something seems off here because the Panthers are coming off being embarrassed by the Giants, and the Falcons escaped with a last-second win in Miami - after wins over the Jets and Giants. There's value on the Panthers in this spot. And if you don't believe me just read the first paragraph of this article.

(Like what you see? I think you should follow and connect with me on Instagram @miami_by_fernie. You may not even want to read any of my awesome content, but know someone who wants to buy a glass of my digital creative juice. Thanks again.)

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Bet ✓: College Football Ranking$

 Lesson No.1 if you come around here, and you're getting ready to bet on some Week 9 college football games this Saturday, including Bulldogs vs. Gators in Jacksonville, Florida: 

 NEVER hinge your bet on whatever your favorite pregame show says before kickoff. Instead, make a habit of dissecting spreads and 💰 lines to arrive at your bet - because nothing Tim Tebow says is going to help put 💰 in your college football bankroll. Let's take a Bet ✓ of my Top-10 ranking$. (Note: I apply a betting value perspective to my rankings.) 

 1.) Georgia: The Bulldogs, at around +105 bet to win the national title, are still the best college football team in the country as they prepare for the Gators as a -14.5 favorite. Rivalry games should be played with a Sharp's eye, but if the Bulldogs win on Saturday they can start planning on the SEC Championship Game.

 2.) Cincinnati: Still relatively untested through two months, but a date with SMU in late November will likely determine the Bearcats path to the CFP.  Or elsewhere. In the meantime, bettors should track the over totals as Cincinnati looks to run up some scores on their opposition in hopes of earning points with the committee.

3.) Ohio State: This isn't the same bunch that lost to a flawed Oregon team at home. If the Buckeyes, a short price to get back to the CFP, get past the Wolverines they will likely play deep into January.

4.) Alabama: There is a good chance the CFP committee will overlook all of 'Bama's issues if they get by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. It might be a good idea to get a price on the Tide getting to the CFP.

5.) Michigan: Is this finally the year the Wolverines get in done vs. Ohio State? If so, they're going to be doing some serious 🎳.

6.) Oklahoma: Plenty not to like here, but the Sooners still remain one of the nation's undefeated teams so that counts for something. But bettors should proceed with caution when backing Oklahoma.

 
No. 1: Are the Bulldogs, (+700) to win the national title this season, on upset alert as -14.5 favorites vs. Florida?

7.) Ole Miss: Warning: The Rebels continue to show marked improvement on defense, and if they box in Auburn .. another jump in the rankings is likely to come soon.

8.) Oregon: The Ducks, who appear to enjoy playing down to their competition, barely survived UCLA. How many more chances will they get before luck runs out on Phil's Kids? Bet the Ducks with extreme caution.

9.) Michigan State: Is a powerful running attack is enough to keep the Spartans relevant among some of the above? Brand matters around here and Michigan State just might be a little too green when it comes to cache.

10.) Notre Dame: The 'Irish got well on offense vs. USC last week -- after struggling for much of the season with Jack Coan under center. Regardless: Don't fade the 'Irish just yet. See above!  

Points well taken: What is a NFL + NCAAF spread bet and how can you make one

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