The first weekend with both NCAAF and NFL action is finally here and the betting board is loaded with intriguing matchups.
Can Texas (+7.5) upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa? Are the Hurricanes (+4.5) good enough to score a big win against Texas A&M? Is Nebraska (+3) primed to halt the nation's love affair with Deion and the Buffaloes? Are Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken truly made for each other?
At 5-1 overall, including 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 in game totals, through two weeks of NCAAF bets, I'm ready to help you get back to the cash window. Here are my NCAAF and NFL best bets for this weekend.
Good luck, everyone !!
Texas A&M @ Miami: under 49.5 points
I found it very curious how the line and total for this game took a turn towards the 'Canes, after A&M opened as a 6 -point road fav at a number of 'books.
That's why I'm fixated on the under total.
I realize Miami, 0-2 as a home 'dog last year, allowed 42 points or more in four of seven home games a year ago, including 45 to Middle Tennessee St., Florida St., and Pittsburgh, respectively.
However, in last year's matchup between these two teams, which netted just 26 total points, Miami held A&M to 264 yards of offense. The Aggies, coming off a 52-10 win over New Mexico, will be hard-pressed to put up that kind of offensive production against an improved Miami D.
On the flip side, I believe Texas A&M matches up very well on both sides of the line of scrimmage vs. Miami.
The Hurricanes, starved for a big win, could be staring at 4-0 with a win in this spot. I look for Miami to want to keep the ball on the ground, and control the pace of the game. The Aggies, meanwhile, have upcoming home dates with Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama before a mid-October trip to Tennessee. Therefore, Jimbo might have bigger fish to fry.
All told, I see a tight, low-scoring game playing out at Hard Rock Stadium. It's also set for a 3:30 p.m. kick-off, which means its going to be hot. And we're already melting for the under total.
Houston @ Baltimore: Texans +10
Maybe, it's the contrarian in me, but I would suggest betting AGAINST NFL teams starting a season with a lot of hype. Especially when it's the opener.
I'm also all in on a Week 1 road 'dog catching (10+) points - even one starting a rookie QB in this spot - because nobody knows what teams really are until they hit the playing field.
That includes the Ravens, who will be breaking in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, in addition to being without secondary mainstay Marlon Humphrey vs the Texans on Sunday.
For all their off season moves, which included inking QB Lamar Jackson to a new deal and adding WR Odell Beckham Jr. via free agency, the Ravens opted to rest most of their starters for much of the preseason. That to me is an edge, as I don't expect Baltimore to just move the ball at will, given they are working in a new offense. Add the unpredictable nature of most NFL games and there's no clear indicator the Ravens are 10+ points better than Houston - right now.
The Texans were sneaky respectable on defense last season, especially in the secondary. Throw in the return of Derek Stingley Jr. to a defense with Will Anderson Jr. and Jimmy Ward, and it would be foolish to assume they are going to be easy work for the Ravens.
In fact, I expect the Texans to do a good job of pressuring Jackson, especially if the Ravens decide to go pass-heavy. I'm interested to see what Monken draws up, if the Texans do bottle up Jackson and Co. On offense, I look for Houston RB Dameon Pierce to find clear running lanes, and rookie QB C.J. Stroud to make plenty of positive plays with his legs.
Week 1 road 'dogs of 8 or more points are also 25-9 ATS (74 %) since 2003.
Finally: We may look back months from now to find the Texans are buried in the bottom of the AFC South. But there's no reason to believe they can't hang with the Ravens in Week 1. If not, crush plenty of survival pools with a straight up win.
