Week 3 of the college football season is here and I'm looking to build on a 5-2 overall start - despite incorrectly opting for the under total in last week's Texas A&M @ Miami game. However, after taking a look at the betting board, I only see value in one spot: home 'dog Florida (+7) against the No. 11 UT Volunteers.
Read why I like the Gators this week 👇:
Tennessee @ Florida +7
For all of their issues in recent years, the Gators, 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games vs. UT, are, in my opinion, being overlooked as 'dogs in this spot.
Despite a Week 1 loss (as a road 'dog at Utah), the Gators defense allowed just 270 yards of total offense to the Utes, keeping UF within striking distance for much of the game. Even after an early breakdown in the secondary put them in a 7-0 hole. Florida QB Graham Mertz, showing solid accuracy, and an ability to find open receivers despite uneven play from the Gators O line, has completed 74 % of his passes for 526 yards and two scores. I expect another strong game from Mertz - especially if the Gators hold up well upfront vs. an elite Vols D line.
At 2-0, UT has shown off offensively, at least in the running game, but their work came against Austin Peay and Virginia, so, it's hard to judge just how good the Vols really are at this point. Additionally, QB Joe Milton has yet to be really tested this season, and I'm interested to see what he can do in a hostile environment with Gator defenders coming after him.
The Vols are legit good on both sides of the ball. But, UF is better than what they're being made out to be. All due respect to Utah and McNeese St., it's been weeks since the Gators started prepping for this game.
Better play by the Gators O line, if not a turnover, or two, could flip the script in a blink of an eye. I also expect the Gators to set, and control the pace of the game with their running attack. So, +7/6.5 is too good to bypass. Let's go barking with the home 'dog!
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