Points well taken: What is a NFL + NCAAF spread bet and how can you make one

For sharps or the most novice of sports bettors in Florida, recently added to the long list of states where you can make a legal sports bet (*for now anyway), the start of a new year means the NFL regular season is coming to a close, while the college football playoffs are just around the corner. 

While there are many ways to bet, especially with the rise in recent years of DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars, in addition to other sites and mobile apps, the main one is point spread betting. Here is an example of a NFL spread bet and how it works. 

When making an NFL point spread bet, which is widely regarded as one of the most popular bets to make when betting on pro football, the final score matters - whether a bettor has a bet on the favorite (denoted with an - by a team's name ) or the underdog (-). 

For example, let's say the Miami Dolphins, the home team for the purpose of this exercise, are favored by 5 points against the Houston Texans. You can bet on the home favorite Dolphins at (-5) or the road underdog Texans (+5). If you bet on the Dolphins, they would have to win the game by 6 points or more for you to win your bet. If you bet on the Texans, they would have either lose by 4 points or fewer, if not win the game for you to win your bet. 

Regardless, you will likely have to pay an additional 10% to make the spread bet, meaning a $100 wager will end up costing you $110 (known as the 'juice' or 'vig').

*Being that you have to pay that $10, you will have to win 52.38 percent of the time to break even. Nobody said sports betting is easy. 

(Note: I encourage all NFL and/or NCAAF bettors to get into the habit of monitoring spreads throughout the week as sportsbooks are likely to adjust the lines depending on what team(s) are being bet on the most.

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NFL Week 11 Betting Pick(s): Cowboys @ Panthers Go Under 42.5 Points Total

Week 11 of the NFL season continues this weekend, and I like a couple selections, including the Cowboys @ Panthers to go under the 42.5 points total. (*As per usual, you can follow me @bet_on305fernie on (X) for additional betting content, analysis, information and best bets.)

Cowboys @ Panthers - u42.5

Last we saw the Cowboys were lighting up the scoreboard vs. the Giants, but this offense isn't quite the same on the road, given their (53 points) combined the last three times out - away from home. The Panthers, for all their problems on offense, will provide plenty of resistance on defense, especially with some key players back on the field. 

While oddsmakers see a one-sided affair, we can't disvalue the Panthers, who last played on Nov. 9 (TNF), having 10 days off, while Dallas plays it's annual Thanksgiving home game next Thursday. So, the Cowboys are in a potential lookahead spot, and could be looking to give some of their starters some rest, if they build a big lead in the game. 

Carolina's offense has not scored 41 total points in its last three games, but once again handing play-calling duties to head coach Frank Reich. Therefore, another transition is likely in order. And while Dallas' defense isn't as formidable as in past years, I'm betting on their pass rush to make it a long day for Bryce Young and Co.  

Additional Pick: 

Eagles +2.5

Chomp away: Bet on home 'dog Gators (+7) vs. Tennessee

Week 3 of the college football season is here and I'm looking to build on a 5-2 overall start - despite incorrectly opting for the under total in last week's Texas A&M @ Miami game. However, after taking a look at the betting board, I only see value in one spot: home 'dog Florida (+7) against the No. 11 UT Volunteers. 

Read why I like the Gators this week 👇: 

Tennessee @ Florida +7

For all of their issues in recent years, the Gators, 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games vs. UT, are, in my opinion, being overlooked as 'dogs in this spot.

Despite a Week 1 loss (as a road 'dog at Utah), the Gators defense allowed just 270 yards of total offense to the Utes, keeping UF within striking distance for much of the game. Even after an early breakdown in the secondary put them in a 7-0 hole. Florida QB Graham Mertz, showing solid accuracy, and an ability to find open receivers despite uneven play from the Gators O line, has completed 74 % of his passes for 526 yards and two scores. I expect another strong game from Mertz - especially if the Gators hold up well upfront vs. an elite Vols D line.

At 2-0, UT has shown off offensively, at least in the running game, but their work came against Austin Peay and Virginia, so, it's hard to judge just how good the Vols really are at this point. Additionally, QB Joe Milton has yet to be really tested this season, and I'm interested to see what he can do in a hostile environment with Gator defenders coming after him. 

The Vols are legit good on both sides of the ball. But, UF is better than what they're being made out to be. All due respect to Utah and McNeese St., it's been weeks since the Gators started prepping for this game. 

Better play by the Gators O line, if not a turnover, or two, could flip the script in a blink of an eye. I also expect the Gators to set, and control the pace of the game with their running attack. So, +7/6.5 is too good to bypass. Let's go barking with the home 'dog! 

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NCAAF+ NFL Best Bets: Go under 49.5 points in Texas A&M @ Miami; take Texans +10 vs. the Ravens

The first weekend with both NCAAF and NFL action is finally here and the betting board is loaded with intriguing matchups.

Can Texas (+7.5) upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa? Are the Hurricanes (+4.5) good enough to score a big win against Texas A&M? Is Nebraska (+3) primed to halt the nation's love affair with Deion and the Buffaloes? Are Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken truly made for each other?

At 5-1 overall, including 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 in game totals, through two weeks of NCAAF bets, I'm ready to help you get back to the cash window. Here are my NCAAF and NFL best bets for this weekend.

Good luck, everyone !!

Texas A&M @ Miami: under 49.5 points

I found it very curious how the line and total for this game took a turn towards the 'Canes, after A&M opened as a 6 -point road fav at a number of 'books.

That's why I'm fixated on the under total.

I realize Miami, 0-2 as a home 'dog last year, allowed 42 points or more in four of seven home games a year ago, including 45 to Middle Tennessee St., Florida St., and Pittsburgh, respectively.

However, in last year's matchup between these two teams, which netted just 26 total points, Miami held A&M to 264 yards of offense. The Aggies, coming off a 52-10 win over New Mexico, will be hard-pressed to put up that kind of offensive production against an improved Miami D.

On the flip side, I believe Texas A&M matches up very well on both sides of the line of scrimmage vs. Miami. 

The Hurricanes, starved for a big win, could be staring at 4-0 with a win in this spot. I look for Miami to want to keep the ball on the ground, and control the pace of the game. The Aggies, meanwhile, have upcoming home dates with Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama before a mid-October trip to Tennessee. Therefore, Jimbo might have bigger fish to fry. 

All told, I see a tight, low-scoring game playing out at Hard Rock Stadium. It's also set for a 3:30 p.m. kick-off, which means its going to be hot. And we're already melting for the under total.

Houston @ Baltimore: Texans +10

Maybe, it's the contrarian in me, but I would suggest betting AGAINST NFL teams starting a season with a lot of hype. Especially when it's the opener.

I'm also all in on a Week 1 road 'dog catching (10+) points - even one starting a rookie QB in this spot - because nobody knows what teams really are until they hit the playing field. 

That includes the Ravens, who will be breaking in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, in addition to being without secondary mainstay Marlon Humphrey vs the Texans on Sunday. 

For all their off season moves, which included inking QB Lamar Jackson to a new deal and adding WR Odell Beckham Jr. via free agency, the Ravens opted to rest most of their starters for much of the preseason. That to me is an edge, as I don't expect Baltimore to just move the ball at will, given they are working in a new offense. Add the unpredictable nature of most NFL games and there's no clear indicator the Ravens are 10+ points better than Houston - right now.

The Texans were sneaky respectable on defense last season, especially in the secondary. Throw in the return of Derek Stingley Jr. to a defense with Will Anderson Jr. and Jimmy Ward, and it would be foolish to assume they are going to be easy work for the Ravens.

In fact, I expect the Texans to do a good job of pressuring Jackson, especially if the Ravens decide to go pass-heavy. I'm interested to see what Monken draws up, if the Texans do bottle up Jackson and Co. On offense, I look for Houston RB Dameon Pierce to find clear running lanes, and rookie QB C.J. Stroud to make plenty of positive plays with his legs.

Week 1 road 'dogs of 8 or more points are also 25-9 ATS (74 %) since 2003. 

Finally: We may look back months from now to find the Texans are buried in the bottom of the AFC South. But there's no reason to believe they can't hang with the Ravens in Week 1. If not, crush plenty of survival pools with a straight up win.

 

Week 1 college football betting picks: UF-Utah under 45.5 points, Miami of Ohio +17.5, Toledo +9.5

Week 1 of the college football season is here, and there's no way we can bypass the betting board, especially off a 2-0 start. Here are my Week 1 picks. (Note: Check your favorite sportsbooks for updated lines, odds, etc.)

Florida @ Utah: under 45.5/46 points

As of this writing, it wasn't clear if Utah QB Cam Rising, coming off surgery for a torn ACL, was going to suit up against the Gators.

If Rising is ruled out, redshirt junior Bryson Barnes will get the start. The Utes will also be without TE Brant Kuithe. Therefore, I expect Utah to lean on their running game.

The Gators, inserting Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz at QB, will look to RBs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne to get their offense going.

 That said, expect Utah to put an emphasis on stopping the run, while forcing Mertz to make some poor decisions.

The total and line here have dropped in recent days -- all because of the uncertainty surrounding Rising. Either way, I expect a low-scoring game. And UF to stick around.

Miami (Ohio) @ UM: under 46 points & Miami of Ohio +17

This, to me, is one of the most interesting games on the Week 1 betting board. Unlike a lot of people, I'm not buying what Miami head coach Mario Cristobal is selling. 

The 'Canes, who tend to struggle against 'lesser' opponents, were awful at home last year, and welcome in Texas A&M next week. 

QB Tyler Van Dyke's health and poor defensive play, if not issues at the WR position, are additional concerns I have about Miami. 

The RedHawks, on the flip side, are no pushover. QB Brett Gabbert is back from injury, and has plenty of options on offense.

Miami of Ohio also returns seven defensive starters, including the entire front line, from a unit that led the MAC in points allowed last season. On offense, the Redhawks love to employ their power-run game. Something UM has struggled to stop in recent years. 

Cristobal, not good in these spots, is 7-21-2 in his last 30 games against the spread. There's also the possibility of heavy rain falling over Hard Rock Stadium on Friday night. Beware!

 

Bienvenido a 'Miami': Can Redhawks QB Brett Gabbert, who had some strong words earlier this week for the Hurricanes, help Miami (of Ohio) pull off the road upset? 

📸: Cincinnati Inquirer 

Toledo @ Illinois: Rockets +9.5

In prepping for this game, I noted Toledo actually had one more vote than Illinois, in the initial AP Top 25 poll released a few weeks ago. And that's telling, especially with the Rockets hitting the road with QB Dequan Finn, an explosive talent who ran for 631 yards and nine touchdowns last season.

Toledo also returns RB Jacquez Stuart. 

I look for the Rockets to control the game with their running game, while opening up opportunities for Finn against an average Illinois defense. This number is too good to pass up. Long live the MAC !!

Points well taken: What is a NFL point spread bet and how you can make one this season

The start of the NFL regular season is almost here !!

And with a host of sportsbooks apps now available at your fingertips, including at Fan Duel, you can also make (live) in-game bets, when betting on NFL game(s). 

But in this blog post, we're going to summarize how to bet the point spread, when betting on any pro football game.

BETTING THE POINT SPREAD

Betting the point spread, not only one of the easiest bets to understand when betting on pro football, but very popular among all bettors, is also known as betting 'against the spread' (ATS). 

A way of encouraging equal betting on both teams, a point spread (bet) provides sportsbooks a way of balancing their action -- after oddsmakers set point spreads for all NFL games.

(Note: Plenty of NFL lines come with an additional half-point, otherwise known as a 'hook'. The 'hook' is intended to avoid any chance of a push (or tie); example like given scores of 7-6 (+1.5), 27-24 (+3.5), 20-14 (+6.5), 31-24 (+7.5), etc.)

In a point spread bet, the final score matters - whether a bettor has the favorite (-) or the underdog (+). For example, let's say the Houston Texans are favored by 5 points against the Miami Dolphins. 

In order for any bettor to win a point spread bet, the 'favored' team (look for a minus next to a team's name) not only has to win the game, but do so by the given point spread for you to cash a bet on the favorite laying points.

On the flip side, if you bet the underdog, which is the team receiving points, they don't have to win the game straight up for you to win your bet - given they don't lose the game by more than the amount of points you took when making the 'spread' bet.

Using Dolphins @ Texans (-5) as an example for this exercise, the team with the negative sign (-5) is the favorite; in this case, it's Houston. If you bet on the Texans against the spread, they have to win the game by at least six points for you to win your bet. So, if the final score is 20-14, or any other score that denotes the Texans winning by at least six points, you cash your bet.

If you bet on the Dolphins, the road underdog with a plus sign (+5), you win your bet if Miami loses by four or fewer points (20-16, 17-13, etc). You also cash your bet, if the Dolphins win the game straight up. 

(Note: It's always a good idea for NFL bettors to monitor the point spreads throughout the week of the games as sportsbooks, who obviously prefer the money be evenly split, are likely to adjust the lines depending on what team is being bet on the most.)

           

Betting the NFL point spread: In order for bettors to cash an NFL point spread bet, the team bet on - whether it's the favorite or underdog - has to win the game by a given margin (*see above).

 

NFL Moneyline Action: What is a NFL moneyline bet; how you can make one this season

With the NFL regular season almost here, bettors everywhere are prepping for a bonanza of football action over the next five months. 

And with a host of sportsbook apps available, including at Fan Duel and Draft Kings, a number of different bets are available when betting on the NFL. But a moneyline bet is still a popular option  when looking for pro football action. Here is a short explanation of a 'moneyline bet', and how to make one when betting pro football. 

HOW TO MAKE A NFL MONEYLINE BET

Moneyline bets, common place in baseball, soccer, and other sports where the final score(s) tend to be on the lower side, can also be made on NFL games.

Unlike with a point spread bet, you're betting on what team will the win the game when making a moneyline bet on any particular NFL team. (*The final score doesn't matter - as long as the team you bet on wins the game.)

Moneyline favorites (-170) are denoted with a negative sign; underdogs are denoted with a plus sign (+;). Let's say the underdog Dolphins (+130) are playing the favorite Texans (-170). If you think Miami is going to win, you bet $100 to win $130. If you like Houston to cash your moneyline bet, you must bet $170 to win $100.

(Reminder: A 10-20 % fee, known as the 'juice' in sports betting circles, will be baked into your moneyline bet. So, a $100 bet will cost you from $110-$120.)

    

                    

Moneyline: In order to win your moneyline bet, the team you bet has to win the game.