Bet ✓: Week 5 NFL Picks

  Still sold on Tua as the future in Miami?

  If so, I'd hate to see your bankroll through four weeks of NFL games because the former first round pick has yet to develop as a downfield passer and probably never will. 

 But enough about the Dolphins problems on offense because we need to take a Bet ✓ of the Week 5 betting board. (Note: The lines and totals I use on here are set by me.)

 Dolphins @ Bucs, Sun.,1 p.m., under 48

Miami is 2-0 ATS on the road, but unfortunately can't find the end zone with any regularity - no matter who is starting at QB. Now, they play a Tampa squad, who has their own problems, plenty of injuries included, and without another top receiver. The Bucs are also coming off a hyped SNF game and could be a bit flat at the jump.

 Jets vs. Falcons, Sun., 9:30 a.m.

 A little American football with your scrambled eggs and English muffins, please. Zach Wilson built some momentum late last week and now gets a shot at a weak Atlanta secondary. The Jets also have an underrated defensive line that will get after Matt Ryan. Pass another cup of tea .. and the points.

  

Extra tea: The Jets play the Falcons, Sunday morning in England. 

 Broncos @ Steelers, Sun., 1 p.m.

 Buy very low on the Steelers (-1), laying a short number at home, and with just about everyone digging space for their grave. Don't be surprised if Mike Tomlin replaces Big Ben at some point, but the Steelers will eventually get by the overvalued Broncos.

 Bills @ Chiefs, Sun., 8:20 p.m.

 Buffalo (+2.5) is better than Kansas City right now, and also has a slight edge at quarterback and coaching. The road team has also been pretty good on Sunday Night Football - if you've been paying ttention.

 Colts @ Ravens, Mon., 8:15 p.m., under 46

 Indianapolis, for all their struggles to move the ball, has been respectable on defense and always causes Baltimore matchup problems for some reason. It's also hard to believe the Ravens are going to all of a sudden air it out.

 #nfl #betting #miami #bets #mnf #snf #jets #london #undertotal #steelers #bigben 

Bet ✓: College football pick$

 Oregon's stagnant offense and some questionable decisions by coach Mario Cristobal led to a straight up loss, and quite a bad beat for those who had betting tickets on the Ducks as (-8.5) road favs at Stanford last week. 

 But let's not bother with the social media club enamored - for some reason - with the idea of Cristobal being the perfect choice to replace Manny Diaz in Coral Gables, because we have no time to set up a fundraiser for the University of Miami athletic department. And let's be real: James Franklin and Luke Fickle are not jumping out of a spiced up Audi to repair a burning Toyota.

Time for a Bet ✓ before you go to the betting window for Week 6. (Note: All lines and totals are estimates using my own projections.)

Temple (+29) @ #5 Cincinnati, Friday, 7 p.m.

You just wrapped up a date with your dream blonde. Now, you somehow have to get through lunch with your twice-married college flame who has blown up over the years, if you what I mean. The Bearcats, coming off arguably their biggest win in school history as road favs at Notre Dame, turn their attention to the lowly Owls - on short rest. Temple stays within the number. 

#6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (+3), Saturday, Noon

 Can Oklahoma, staying afloat despite lackluster offense so far this season, survive another 'Red River' episode with Spencer Rattler being just average? Look for Texas, not relying entirely on young QB Casey Thompson, to put a big workload on RB Bijan Robinson yet again and control the pace of the game despite injuries along their offensive line. A big turnover could factor in the final outcome as well. 

   

Laces up: Oklahoma meets Texas in another edition of the The Red River Rivalry on Saturday afternoon in Dallas, Texas 

  WForest @ 'Cuse (+6.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

 The Orange has already knocked off a ranked opponent as home underdogs this season -- something coach Dino Babers has been pretty good at since arriving in Northern NY. In Dino We Trust ..

  LSU @ #16 UK, Under 51 , Saturday, 7:30 p.m. 

  The Tigers have serious issues on their offensive line, putting plenty of responsibility on QB Max Johnson. And if that wasn't enough, they struggle to stop the run, which just might be Kentucky's recipe on offense. The Wildcats are also coming off a huge upset win over Florida. Take the under the total bet to the 💰 window.

Extra pick: 

Penn State @ Iowa, Under 41.5, Saturday, 4 p.m.

(I'm 12-10 in college football, including 2-3 last week, and 25-16 overall NFL selections. If you enjoy my work on here and would like to connect let's do it on Instagram at miami_by_fernie ) 

 #collegefootball #bets #week6 #picks #homefav #underdog #betting 

  

 

Bet ✓: NFL Ranking$

  Are you still awake staring at the ceiling because you can't get over how good Justin Herbert is .. and your favorite NFL team has serious problems moving the football down the field? 

 Unfortunately, it looks as if the Dolphins, who opted for Tua Tagovailoa instead of Herbert in the 2020 NFL Draft, will play out the 2021 season without a true downfield passer who routinely settles for a check down option -- even when and if Tagovailoa returns from injured reserve. 

 In the meantime, the Dolphins can rest their hopes to stay relevant on a stingy defense. Let's take a 'Bet √' of the rest of the NFL in time for Week 5. (Note: My rankings are based on betting value and projections:)

 1.) Cowboys:  The defense is turning turnovers into points and their depth is showing up despite several key injuries. Buy low -- both week-to week and long-term -- because this time it's for real. And you can start screaming one question at your best friend every time she calls to brag about her new iPhone: 'How 'bout them Cowboys!?!' 

2.) Chargers: A star quarterback and arguably the best defensive line in the league will be plenty to silence the 'road crowd' for the rest of the season. 

3.) Raiders: The Raiders, outside of getting cut up in the middle of the field by the Chargers tight ends and being out coached on occasion, matched their AFC West rival's physicality for much of MNF. A couple bottles of your favorite sports drink might do the Raiders good to get things going after the opening whistle, though.

4.) Browns: Don't feel sorry for Baker Mayfield, and go get your shoulder pads at that garage sale. And track the under points total for value on a very good defense. 

5.) Bills: Whipping up on Washington, the Dolphins and Texans might not be reason enough to earn the Bills Top-5 credentials, but its the way they've totally manhandled their opponents over the past three weeks that has them trending up. And hitting those over totals.

 6.) Packers: Just enough - so far - to stay relevant. But getting past the 49ers on a last -second field goal and looking alright against an uninspiring Steelers squad in consecutive weeks won't move you .. very quickly. Let's see more.

7.) Cardinals: Kyler Murray is turning the corner from inconsistent middler to fringe star. And the Cardinals, while their run defense has to be better, just put the rest of the league on notice. 

 8.) Bucs: Is this team really good or an over - hyped Super Bowl champ marketed around an all-time player who helped beat a Washington Football Team on its third quarterback, and soft Green Bay and Kansas City defensive squads last season? Track under points total on a weekly basis - if you want to find value going against the Buccaneers. 

 

Shielding issues: Are the Bucs, coming off a narrow win vs. New England, really a serious Super Bowl contender?

 9.) Panthers: Above-average defensive line and competent coaching staff makes Carolina a dark horse and smart bet to win NFC South.

 10.) Rams: Time to put more meat and less broth in those innovative playbooks. They do belong to Sean McVay, right?

#nfl #powerrankings #miami #dolphins #totals #underover #bet #value #nfcsouth #cowboys #content 

Bet ✓ : NFL (Week 4)

  Don't blame anybody else, but yourself because you decided it was a good idea to buy 16 Tua Tagovailoa signed jerseys, in addition to 36 rookie cards of one of 'Nick's Kids' after the Miami Dolphins selected Tagovailoa the 5th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. 

  Look at you, now. You're stuck with a sports memorabilia investment even Tua Tagovailoa, himself, would not want to touch right this very minute given his fractured future, among other things, as starting quarterback of your favorite NFL team. 

  And your wife just surprised you for your birthday with two mini-helmets signed by you know who .. But lucky for you, it's Week 4 in the NFL and 'Bet ✓' has you covered. So, don't even think about selling us on one of those awful, No. 1 Tua Tagovailoa jerseys.

 Colts @ Dolphins (-2), 1 p.m., CBS

 Miami, despite a below .500 record, has covered ATS in two of their three games, thanks in part to respectable showings by their defense, including last week in an OT setback vs. Las Vegas. Now, the Dolphins return to Hard Rock Stadium, where they were egged by a division rival just two weeks ago, as short home favorites against the depleted Colts, still facing uncertainty at starting QB and waiting for Jonathan Taylor .. while plagued with injuries along the offensive line, asked to block for 60 minutes, at least, against an above-average defense line.

Panthers @ Cowboys (-4), 1 p.m., Fox 

 These Cowboys, 3-0 ATS, don't have the look of your grandpa's Wranglers. Dallas, off a MNF bird feast, host a second straight home game; this time against a well-rested Carolina team, coming off healthy servings of Jets, Saints and Texans to start the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, who are undervalued in our opinion, have true depth across the board and are much-improved on defense.

 Steelers (+6.5) @ Packers, 4:25 p m., CBS

 Perfect buy low spot with the Steelers, who just about everyone has given up on after just three weeks, getting almost a touchdown on the road against a defensively flawed opponent. Never mind, one coming off a short week after a SNF win over an arch-rival. Not only do the Steelers need it more, but they have enough talent to at least hang inside the number. 

  

 Fish dip: The Dolphins (-2), minus QB Tua Tagovailoa for the second straight week, host the Indianapolis Colts at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. 

 Raiders @ Chargers (+3.5)

 About those Tua cards .. Just kidding. The Chargers, home underdogs in the this spot, are armed with a real 🌟 at QB, and he's getting the Raiders, who have already played Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Miami, to criss-cross for a divisional game. Add a good defense and Derek Carr might have a rough time of it trying to find open receivers.  

 

Bet ✓: College football (Week 5) picks

 It's been almost a week and you're still walking around talking to yourself because you had under 46.5 in the Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin game. I feel your pain if you watched in disbelief as the offensively challenged Irish scored 21 points in the fourth quarter -- on a special teams touchdown and two defensive 🏠 calls. Sorry.

 But it's Thursday and you should be on the way to the grocery store right now to buy some adult beverages and grill favorites because Week 5 is here: 

 Virginia @ Miami (-8.5) - 7:30 p.m., Thurs., ESPN

 Miami, down to the point their coach has to start a presser by swatting away media criticism, opens ACC play as more than a TD fav at home for third time this season. Virginia, ama flawed opponent yet to score a conference win, is playing at Hard Rock Stadium for the third straight year. Third time is the charm - no matter who starts at QB for the Hurricanes. 

 

Drop of a hat: Miami (-8.5) opens ACC play vs. Virginia at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. 

 No. 12 Ole Miss (+14.5) @ Alabama - 3:30 p.m., CBS

 Kind of smelly digits here considering Ole Miss has had an extra week to prepare with a Heisman Trophy candidate and played Alabama pretty evenly last year despite serious issues on defense. And this 'Tide outfit doesn't look unbeatable. In fact, they should have lost at Florida. This line doesn't look right. Live 'DOG ALERT.

 

 No. 6 Oklahoma @ Kansas St. (+10.5) - 3:30 p.m., FOX

 The Wildcats, despite coming off a loss, have been pretty $olid as a home underdog under Chris Klieman and now roll out the welcome mat for a Sooners squad unable to get their offense on full. 

  

 No. 3 Oregon (-8.5) @ Stanford - 3:30 p.m., ABC

 The Ducks, only a single-digit road favorite vs. an irregular conference opponent, are still going about their business as quite a bargain. Take advantage of the market, most of which is consumed with the SEC and Notre Dame, and not up on the Pac-12, while you can. $$

 Minnesota @ Purdue - U47.5 - Noon, BTN

 The Gophers just cooked a spoiled egg vs. Bowling Green as 31-point home favs, and apparently are convinced running the ball over and over again is great strategy. Even in 2021. Meanwhile, Purdue, dealing with a number of injuries on offense, likely will not have an easier route to the end zone. 

 

#week5 #collegefootballpicks #ncaaf #miami #moneyline #sportsbetting #betcheck #collegefootball #miamihurricanes 

 

 

Bet √: NFL Power Ranking$

  It's not even October and the Dolphins (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) are showing signs of cracking. If not, trying to put a positive spin - internally at least - on what to do with Tua Tagovailoa after his return from IR with fractured ribs.  

 But don't hold your breath because whispers are already swirling the former first-round pick might not be part of the Dolphins long-term plans at QB - no matter how the Dolphins perform the next three weeks. Yet, for all their issues, starting QB, included, the Dolphins, who host the Colts at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, have managed to cover the spread in two of their first three games this season. 

 And the Dolphins will have a built-in advantage vs. Indianapolis -- if you pay close attention to transactions, injuries and line moves, among other things. In the meantime, five undefeated teams remain, while the Giants and Jets are still trying to figure things out. Time for a 'Bet ✓' time: (All ranks are based on the betting value and long-term projections for each team.)

  1.) Cowboys: A legit player in the NFC - with an MVP candidate playing at a high level and deep depth across the roster. Don't buy into Dallas (3-0 ATS), showing marked improvement on offense and defense, thanks to very good coordinators, respectively, being mismanaged by their head coach because only one thing can derail them: Injuries.

 2.) Packers: By now, hopefully you've seen enough Aaron Rodgers commercials to know such things matter. If not, pay attention. That's two ATS wins in a row - after the opener vs. New Orleans. Serious NFC player, too. If they can string together some of their defensive woes.

3.) Bills: Everything looks good for now -- even the tall one staring at you while you wait for your wings at the bar in Buffalo. But can the Bills continue to score at their current pace? Hold off on those over totals .. and wings, until we see more.

4.) Steelers: Love when everyone starts jumping off a sinking ship. It gives the wise a chance to buy low. Check back in a couple weeks, when the OL has been restored and their rookie RB is gaining steam. Until then, wait under the tunnel.

5.) Rams: Only because they're still on honeymoon. But beware: This is Matthew Stafford we're making a big deal about. And the Rams, while talented on defense, have a tendency to get caught napping in the secondary.

6.) Raiders: 3-0 for the first time since they went bowling in 2002 and they own Las Vegas right now. I'm buying the Raiders and their understated QB as Super Bowl worthy. But  passing on their owner's hairdresser.

  

 Grounded: Will QB Tua Tagovailoa, out with fractured ribs, ever live up to his first-round pick status with the Miami Dolphins?

 7.) Panthers : Always love when a team loses a star player because the general perception is said team will go in the tank. No so -- Panthers included. Very well coached team, which has the perfect formula to play deep into January. Buy while you can still beat the market. 

8.) Chargers: See above. Only the Chargers have a star quarterback and respectable defense.

   

9.) 49ers: Enough talent to go down to the wire in primetime vs. the Packers - but is their head coach cut out for January? 

10.) Browns: Best defensive line in AFC, if not the entire league. Another outfit you can buy relatively cheap right now. It will co$t you a few more pennies in a few months - especially if the Browns are injury and drama-free. 

11.) Cardinals: Arguably the best talent in the NFC, but unfortunately handled by a head coach who makes some head-scratching decisions on occasion. And has a thing for the TV cams.

12.) Patriots: Right here is just fine -- especially with a prime spot vs. the Bucs on Sunday night.

13-15.) Broncos, Seahawks and Chiefs

#nfl #powerrankings #betting #sportsbetting #miami #betcheck #miamidolphins #tua #ribs #whispers #hardrockstadium #injured #sportscontent #marketing 

Bet √: College Football Ranking$

  What good is a DJ if he doesn't have the goods around him to spin it, accordingly, or a Heisman Trophy candidate trying to build a marketing campaign, albeit a limp one, when some people in his own house have turned on him?

  But perhaps you're not up to speed with Clemson's inability to get their offense fixed and Spencer Rattler being just average because you're still working on some smoked pig in  celebration of your new favorite college football team, Arkansas, which nobody cared about three weeks ago, if not playing 'I Won't Back Down' on a loop since you think the Gators, a Top-5 team in your opinion, will eventually get another crack at Nick's Kids.

  So, you've had no time to realize Texas A&M is overrated, Ole Miss is underrated, Oregon is underrated, Notre Dame might be a bit underrated, Georgia is just right and Alabama is .. neither. Let$ take a Bet √: 

 1.) Alabama: Ms. Terry is losing sleep. And you should start looking to go against the 'Tide -- especially when getting points with a ranked team. Hint: On Saturday. 

 2.) Georgia: Sunday-like talent on both sides of the ball makes whoever is at QB almost meaningless. Pounce on those money lines.

 3.) Oregon: Ride with the Ducks .. until they get too expensive. 

4.) Penn State: Balance on both sides of the ball and extremely well coached. Just wait under the tunnel. 

5.) Florida: See right above. Only better talent.

6.) Notre Dame: Another big game on Saturday afternoon. Will the Bearcats catch the Irish napping?

7.) Ohio St. : CFP good - if they can fix some of their defensive issues.

8.) Ole Miss. : Live - very live - 'dog on Saturday. Note: Matt Corral (+150) and Bryce Young (+175) have the similar odds to win the Heisman Trophy Award. Pay attention!

9.) Michigan: Start looking at those totals and pounce before the market closes in on you.

10.) Arkansas: Easy on the smoked pig. It can be hazardous to your health. Although, coming within three touchdowns of Georgia would be cause for another serving. 

(Note: My rankings are based on projected betting value for each team. Like what you see and want to reach out? Let's connect @miami_by_fernie on Instagram.)

#collegefootball #bet #rankings #week5 #miami #betting #sportsbook #bets #sportsbetting #