NCAAF+ NFL Best Bets: Go under 49.5 points in Texas A&M @ Miami; take Texans +10 vs. the Ravens

The first weekend with both NCAAF and NFL action is finally here and the betting board is loaded with intriguing matchups.

Can Texas (+7.5) upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa? Are the Hurricanes (+4.5) good enough to score a big win against Texas A&M? Is Nebraska (+3) primed to halt the nation's love affair with Deion and the Buffaloes? Are Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken truly made for each other?

At 5-1 overall, including 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 in game totals, through two weeks of NCAAF bets, I'm ready to help you get back to the cash window. Here are my NCAAF and NFL best bets for this weekend.

Good luck, everyone !!

Texas A&M @ Miami: under 49.5 points

I found it very curious how the line and total for this game took a turn towards the 'Canes, after A&M opened as a 6 -point road fav at a number of 'books.

That's why I'm fixated on the under total.

I realize Miami, 0-2 as a home 'dog last year, allowed 42 points or more in four of seven home games a year ago, including 45 to Middle Tennessee St., Florida St., and Pittsburgh, respectively.

However, in last year's matchup between these two teams, which netted just 26 total points, Miami held A&M to 264 yards of offense. The Aggies, coming off a 52-10 win over New Mexico, will be hard-pressed to put up that kind of offensive production against an improved Miami D.

On the flip side, I believe Texas A&M matches up very well on both sides of the line of scrimmage vs. Miami. 

The Hurricanes, starved for a big win, could be staring at 4-0 with a win in this spot. I look for Miami to want to keep the ball on the ground, and control the pace of the game. The Aggies, meanwhile, have upcoming home dates with Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama before a mid-October trip to Tennessee. Therefore, Jimbo might have bigger fish to fry. 

All told, I see a tight, low-scoring game playing out at Hard Rock Stadium. It's also set for a 3:30 p.m. kick-off, which means its going to be hot. And we're already melting for the under total.

Houston @ Baltimore: Texans +10

Maybe, it's the contrarian in me, but I would suggest betting AGAINST NFL teams starting a season with a lot of hype. Especially when it's the opener.

I'm also all in on a Week 1 road 'dog catching (10+) points - even one starting a rookie QB in this spot - because nobody knows what teams really are until they hit the playing field. 

That includes the Ravens, who will be breaking in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, in addition to being without secondary mainstay Marlon Humphrey vs the Texans on Sunday. 

For all their off season moves, which included inking QB Lamar Jackson to a new deal and adding WR Odell Beckham Jr. via free agency, the Ravens opted to rest most of their starters for much of the preseason. That to me is an edge, as I don't expect Baltimore to just move the ball at will, given they are working in a new offense. Add the unpredictable nature of most NFL games and there's no clear indicator the Ravens are 10+ points better than Houston - right now.

The Texans were sneaky respectable on defense last season, especially in the secondary. Throw in the return of Derek Stingley Jr. to a defense with Will Anderson Jr. and Jimmy Ward, and it would be foolish to assume they are going to be easy work for the Ravens.

In fact, I expect the Texans to do a good job of pressuring Jackson, especially if the Ravens decide to go pass-heavy. I'm interested to see what Monken draws up, if the Texans do bottle up Jackson and Co. On offense, I look for Houston RB Dameon Pierce to find clear running lanes, and rookie QB C.J. Stroud to make plenty of positive plays with his legs.

Week 1 road 'dogs of 8 or more points are also 25-9 ATS (74 %) since 2003. 

Finally: We may look back months from now to find the Texans are buried in the bottom of the AFC South. But there's no reason to believe they can't hang with the Ravens in Week 1. If not, crush plenty of survival pools with a straight up win.

 

Week 1 college football betting picks: UF-Utah under 45.5 points, Miami of Ohio +17.5, Toledo +9.5

Week 1 of the college football season is here, and there's no way we can bypass the betting board, especially off a 2-0 start. Here are my Week 1 picks. (Note: Check your favorite sportsbooks for updated lines, odds, etc.)

Florida @ Utah: under 45.5/46 points

As of this writing, it wasn't clear if Utah QB Cam Rising, coming off surgery for a torn ACL, was going to suit up against the Gators.

If Rising is ruled out, redshirt junior Bryson Barnes will get the start. The Utes will also be without TE Brant Kuithe. Therefore, I expect Utah to lean on their running game.

The Gators, inserting Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz at QB, will look to RBs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne to get their offense going.

 That said, expect Utah to put an emphasis on stopping the run, while forcing Mertz to make some poor decisions.

The total and line here have dropped in recent days -- all because of the uncertainty surrounding Rising. Either way, I expect a low-scoring game. And UF to stick around.

Miami (Ohio) @ UM: under 46 points & Miami of Ohio +17

This, to me, is one of the most interesting games on the Week 1 betting board. Unlike a lot of people, I'm not buying what Miami head coach Mario Cristobal is selling. 

The 'Canes, who tend to struggle against 'lesser' opponents, were awful at home last year, and welcome in Texas A&M next week. 

QB Tyler Van Dyke's health and poor defensive play, if not issues at the WR position, are additional concerns I have about Miami. 

The RedHawks, on the flip side, are no pushover. QB Brett Gabbert is back from injury, and has plenty of options on offense.

Miami of Ohio also returns seven defensive starters, including the entire front line, from a unit that led the MAC in points allowed last season. On offense, the Redhawks love to employ their power-run game. Something UM has struggled to stop in recent years. 

Cristobal, not good in these spots, is 7-21-2 in his last 30 games against the spread. There's also the possibility of heavy rain falling over Hard Rock Stadium on Friday night. Beware!

 

Bienvenido a 'Miami': Can Redhawks QB Brett Gabbert, who had some strong words earlier this week for the Hurricanes, help Miami (of Ohio) pull off the road upset? 

📸: Cincinnati Inquirer 

Toledo @ Illinois: Rockets +9.5

In prepping for this game, I noted Toledo actually had one more vote than Illinois, in the initial AP Top 25 poll released a few weeks ago. And that's telling, especially with the Rockets hitting the road with QB Dequan Finn, an explosive talent who ran for 631 yards and nine touchdowns last season.

Toledo also returns RB Jacquez Stuart. 

I look for the Rockets to control the game with their running game, while opening up opportunities for Finn against an average Illinois defense. This number is too good to pass up. Long live the MAC !!

Points well taken: What is a NFL point spread bet and how you can make one this season

The start of the NFL regular season is almost here !!

And with a host of sportsbooks apps now available at your fingertips, including at Fan Duel, you can also make (live) in-game bets, when betting on NFL game(s). 

But in this blog post, we're going to summarize how to bet the point spread, when betting on any pro football game.

BETTING THE POINT SPREAD

Betting the point spread, not only one of the easiest bets to understand when betting on pro football, but very popular among all bettors, is also known as betting 'against the spread' (ATS). 

A way of encouraging equal betting on both teams, a point spread (bet) provides sportsbooks a way of balancing their action -- after oddsmakers set point spreads for all NFL games.

(Note: Plenty of NFL lines come with an additional half-point, otherwise known as a 'hook'. The 'hook' is intended to avoid any chance of a push (or tie); example like given scores of 7-6 (+1.5), 27-24 (+3.5), 20-14 (+6.5), 31-24 (+7.5), etc.)

In a point spread bet, the final score matters - whether a bettor has the favorite (-) or the underdog (+). For example, let's say the Houston Texans are favored by 5 points against the Miami Dolphins. 

In order for any bettor to win a point spread bet, the 'favored' team (look for a minus next to a team's name) not only has to win the game, but do so by the given point spread for you to cash a bet on the favorite laying points.

On the flip side, if you bet the underdog, which is the team receiving points, they don't have to win the game straight up for you to win your bet - given they don't lose the game by more than the amount of points you took when making the 'spread' bet.

Using Dolphins @ Texans (-5) as an example for this exercise, the team with the negative sign (-5) is the favorite; in this case, it's Houston. If you bet on the Texans against the spread, they have to win the game by at least six points for you to win your bet. So, if the final score is 20-14, or any other score that denotes the Texans winning by at least six points, you cash your bet.

If you bet on the Dolphins, the road underdog with a plus sign (+5), you win your bet if Miami loses by four or fewer points (20-16, 17-13, etc). You also cash your bet, if the Dolphins win the game straight up. 

(Note: It's always a good idea for NFL bettors to monitor the point spreads throughout the week of the games as sportsbooks, who obviously prefer the money be evenly split, are likely to adjust the lines depending on what team is being bet on the most.)

           

Betting the NFL point spread: In order for bettors to cash an NFL point spread bet, the team bet on - whether it's the favorite or underdog - has to win the game by a given margin (*see above).

 

NFL Moneyline Action: What is a NFL moneyline bet; how you can make one this season

With the NFL regular season almost here, bettors everywhere are prepping for a bonanza of football action over the next five months. 

And with a host of sportsbook apps available, including at Fan Duel and Draft Kings, a number of different bets are available when betting on the NFL. But a moneyline bet is still a popular option  when looking for pro football action. Here is a short explanation of a 'moneyline bet', and how to make one when betting pro football. 

HOW TO MAKE A NFL MONEYLINE BET

Moneyline bets, common place in baseball, soccer, and other sports where the final score(s) tend to be on the lower side, can also be made on NFL games.

Unlike with a point spread bet, you're betting on what team will the win the game when making a moneyline bet on any particular NFL team. (*The final score doesn't matter - as long as the team you bet on wins the game.)

Moneyline favorites (-170) are denoted with a negative sign; underdogs are denoted with a plus sign (+;). Let's say the underdog Dolphins (+130) are playing the favorite Texans (-170). If you think Miami is going to win, you bet $100 to win $130. If you like Houston to cash your moneyline bet, you must bet $170 to win $100.

(Reminder: A 10-20 % fee, known as the 'juice' in sports betting circles, will be baked into your moneyline bet. So, a $100 bet will cost you from $110-$120.)

    

                    

Moneyline: In order to win your moneyline bet, the team you bet has to win the game.

                 

Hold the offense: Bet Colts-Bears to go under the 40.5 point total

The total for this game kept rising earlier in the week after Colts QB Anthony Richardson was named the No. 1 starter.

 Meanwhile, Bears QB Justin Fields isn't expected to play.

 Regardless, l like the under 40.5 point total. Here's why. 

Colts @ Bears: Under 40.5 (-110)

While I think the Bears and Colts are set to play plenty of key starters on offense, both teams have plenty to iron out when it comes to moving the football effectively.

On one hand, Richardson, named the Colts No. 1 QB earlier this week, threw a pick on his first NFL drive last week, and looked quite uncomfortable doing it. 

As a result, he's likely to see the field a lot, and that's a good thing for under bettors because I'm not sure the Florida alum is better right now than backup QBs Gardner Minshew or Sam Ehlinger. 

At first glance, Fields' stats last week (129 passing yards and two touchdown passes on just three completions) jump off the page. But most of those yards were gained after successful screen passes. In addition, the Bears, working out a new offensive scheme, have determined Fields will not play against Indy. So, be very careful.

Finally, as a contrarian, I like the fact that the total in this game keeps going up. I also tend to take a hard look at the under total in NFL preseason games. Especially in this spot, and given the uncertainty, still, surrounding both of the offensive units.

Cut it out: Bet Washington (+3.5) to beat Baltimore, end streak

Commanders (+3.5) over Ravens 

The Ravens, on a 24-game preseason win streak, rested most of their key starters in last week's win over the Eagles. So, it's safe to bet on Lamar Jackson and Co. playing very little here.

Despite a Week 1 preseason win against the the Browns, Washington struggled to find any offensive rhythm with Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett behind center. For that reason, I look for Howell and Brissett to get significant playing time as the Commanders not only look to settle in on a starting quarterback, but dig deep into what is an uneven roster. 

One of the few preseason questions left for the Ravens to answer is who will be their backup QB: Tyler Huntley or Josh Johnson?  Oddly, Huntley, nursing a hamstring injury despite reportedly being in the lead to win the job, might not play much in this spot, leaving the 37-year-old Johnson plenty of snaps vs. Washington.

Watching Johnson at quarterback, even against Washington's second and third-team teamers on defense, should give all bettors pause, even with a meaningless winning steak at play. 

Without giving away all of my NFL betting strategy, I'm also intrigued by a road underdog getting more than a field goal against a team riding a meaningless winning streak.

Remember: Washington, losers of four straight exhibition games vs. Baltimore, doesn't have to win the game straight up, as losing by a FG or less would be just fine.

Bet on Terance Crawford (-150) to defeat Errol Spence Jr. in 'super-fight' for welterweight supremacy

 

Finally boxing bettors have another 'super-fight' to bet on as Terence Crawford (39-0, 33 KOs) vs. Errol Spence Jr. (33-0, 22 KOs) takes place Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Whether or not, Crawford and Spence Jr., still the two best welterweights in the world but only now getting in the ring after years of engaging in social media wars and promotional teases, provide a memorable fight is no sure bet. 

But their respective styles make it an intriguing watch -- at least going into the fight. 

Betting Analyst + Prediction 

At first glance, Crawford (-150), a solid favorite at most sportsbooks to win the long-awaited unification bout for all the belts in the welterweight division, appears to be the right bet. Especially, if you can get him at a reasonable price.

Still widely considered the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world, Crawford's ability to switch from orthodox to southpaw on a whim while using his speed and footwork to neutralize opponents, if not counter-punch, is a work of art inside the ring. And it will give Spence Jr., who at times can find himself flat-footed, problems.

His overall skill set unaffected by his trajectory, Crawford, who unified two titles at 135 pounds before running through the super lightweight division, is 9-0 at welterweight. 

While just 5-foot-8, Crawford will not only have a reach advantage but is also the better defensive fighter. It will help him ward off any kind of pressure in this spot.

Spence Jr. (+120), the underdog despite owning three welterweight belts, is on the short list of top welterweights since picking apart Kell Brook in 2017; his size and strength giving him a physical advantage over Crawford - at least on paper. 

But while he owns impressive victories over Brook and Shawn Porter, both good, but not all-time fighters, it's hard to imagine him bullying Crawford around the ring for most of the night. 

When I think of putting a capsule on this fight, I think of the Sugar Ray Leonard vs. Tommy Hearns classic in 1981. In no way am I comparing these two .. but Hearns, the taller and stronger fighter, had his way for much of the early rounds before Leonard's superior boxing skills took over in the second half of the fight .. and eventually earned him a 14th round TKO win. 

So, yes, Spence Jr. will probably have his moments, especially early if he can make Crawford feel his power, but Crawford will eventually adjust and use his array of skills to earn another impressive victory. (Crawford by split decision.)

Bet: Crawford (-150) 

(Looking for a media specialist/sports betting analyst or just have a question or two on how I can be of help? Follow me @bet_on305fernie)

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